中国省域农村产业融合水平的空间收敛性与分异特征

农村产业融合既是乡村产业振兴的根本途径，也是减缓“三农”问题的重要手段，提高农村产业融合发展水平是锻铸农村地区经济韧性的关键环节。采用熵权法测算中国31个省份2008—2020年的农村产业融合水平，在考虑空间因素与控制变量的前提条件下，基于空间条件β收敛模型对其收敛性和时空分异特征进行分析。研究发现：1）从农村产业融合水平的测度结果来看，全国层面的总体水平不高，仅完成了目标值的40%；区域层面上，水平增速呈现出“东—西—中”的递减趋势；省域层面上，同一区域内省份间差距小于不同区域的省份间差距。2）从农村产业融合水平的收敛性来看，我国农村产业融合水平具有明显的空间条件β收敛特征，且空间因素的纳入使得收敛周期缩短了约6 a；财政支农、农业技术进步与农村居民消费水平提升促进了农村产业融合水平的提高及高值收敛，而人力资本水平对其收敛具有抑制作用，且表现不明显。3）从农村产业融合水平的时空分异特征来看，空间上，三大区域农村产业融合水平均存在显著的“俱乐部收敛”特征，且收敛率高于全国平均水平，空间正向溢出效应同样强于全国层面；时间上，2016—2020年收敛率高于2008—2015年，经济发展水平、人力资本水平等因素对农村产业融合的作用方向与程度在前后两个时期均有明显差异。为此，提出以下建议：1）充分认识当前现实，继续完善顶层设计，科学引导农业现代化融合方向；2）充分发挥财政支农资金、农业技术进步与农村居民消费水平提升的促进作用，改善农村产业融合水平的非均衡区域分布现状；3）重视“人才红利”优势，充分发挥人力资本对农村产业融合水平提升及高值收敛的正向促进作用；4）树立全国“整盘蛋糕”的农村产业融合系统观念，实现全国农村产业融合均衡发展。

SPATIAL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIATED CHARACTERISTICS OFCHINA'S PROVINCIAL RURAL INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATION LEVEL

Rural industrial integration is a fundamental approach to agricultural industrial bloom, and also a key solution to rural, agricultural and farmers’ issues. Increasing rural industrial integration level is a critical means to agricultural economy. This paper uses entropy weights to estimate 31 Chinese provinces’ 2008 to 2020 rural industrial integration level, and analyzes the spatial convergence and differentiated characteristic based on spatial conditionalβconvergence model. Results show that rural industrial integration level is low, only 40% of the target. Regionally, horizontal rising rate displays a deceasing tend from east, west and to central. Provincewide variance is less than cross-provincial. China’s rural industrial integration level is outstandingly of spatially conditionalβconvergence, with its convergence period shortened by 6 years. Rural industrial integration level is mostly contributed by financing agriculture, agricultural technical advances and farmers’ rising consumption level, but its convergence is slightly constrained by human capital. Spatially, rural industrial integration level in three areas is of notable “club convergence”, higher that the national average, also with a stronger spatial positive overflowing effect. Temporally, convergence rate in 2016 to 2020 is higher than 2008 to 2015, in which economic development and human capital work variably in direction and extent. This paper presents suggestions on optimizing top design, and modernizing agricultural industries, boosting financing agriculture, agricultural technical advances and farmers’ consumption level, improving imbalanced agricultural industrial integration, paying attention on talents, fulfilling the positive promotion of human capital on rural industrial integration level and high value convergence, and establishing a concept of wholly national rural industrial integration system and realizing a balanced development of nationwide rural industrial integration.