基于水力学与水化学耦合的矿井涌(突)水水源识别方法研究

解决当前水源识别仅考虑矿井水化学特性及水位观测等少量因素，缺乏矿井突水力学支撑相关问题，以林西煤矿1021中回采工作面为例，提出了一种基于水力学与水化学耦合的矿井涌(突)水水源识别方法。该方法首先根据封闭不良钻孔、断层、老空区、底板等矿井突水力学模型，求解涌(突)水点不同水源或通道突水的临界防隔水煤岩柱厚度Lv|其次对比Lv和实际隔水煤岩柱厚度Le之间定量关系，判定不同水源突水的先验概率|然后以先验概率为纽带，利用贝叶斯判别分析，建立基于水力学与水化学耦合的矿井突水水源识别模型|最后利用该模型对1021中回采工作面涌水点水源进行验证识别。研究结果表明：由于第Ⅲ含水层、第Ⅳ含水层水化学特征相似，建立单一的水化学识别模型，会将涌(突)水点水源误判为第Ⅲ含水层水。而基于水力学与水化学耦合的水源识别模型可精确识别出该涌(突)水点水源属于第Ⅳ含水层水，判识结果与工程实际情况一致，有效提高了矿井涌(突)水水源识别精度。

Research on the method of source discrimination of mine water inflow or inrush based on the coupling of hydraulics and water chemistry

The identification of mine water inrush water source plays an important guiding role in mine water disaster prevention and emergency rescue. In order to solve the problem that the current water source identification only considers a few factors such as mine water chemical characteristics and water level observation, and lacks the support of mine water inrush mechanics. Taking the 1021 middle working face of Linxi Coal Mine as an example, a method for identifying the source of mine water influx based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry is proposed. The method firstly solves the critical water-proof coal-rock column thickness L_v of water inrush from different water sources or channels at the water inrush point according to the mine hydraulic model of poorly sealed boreholes, faults, old gobs, floor and other mines. Secondly, the quantitative relationship between L_v and the thickness L_e of the actual water-resistant coal-rock column is compared to determine the prior probability of water inrush from different water sources. Then, with the prior probability as a link, a Bayesian discriminant analysis is used to establish a mine water inrush water source identification model based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry. Finally, the model is used to verify and identify the water source of the water inflow point in the 1021 mining face. The research results show that because the hydrochemical characteristics of the Ⅲ aquifer and the Ⅳ aquifer are similar, the establishment of a single hydrochemical identification model will misjudge the water source of the inflow point as the water of the Ⅲ aquifer. The water source identification model based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry established in this paper can accurately identify that the water source at the water inflow point belongs to the fourth aquifer water.