基于补偿新能源出力预测曲线偏差的储能控制模型

为了判断补偿新能源出力预测偏差分布情况，控制储能过程，进而优化新能源系统储能效果，设计基于补偿新能源出力预测曲线偏差的储能控制模型。构建风、光、水新能源互补分布式能源系统，基于其风、光、水新能源发电原理及能源互补模式，补偿新能源出力情况，因补偿后新能源出力存在随机性，利用预测箱采集补偿新能源出力历史信息，构建预测偏差分布概率模型，分析新能源出力预测偏差分布情况，根据递归估计协方差矩阵，解析新能源出力时间相关性，结合变分自编码器生成补偿新能源出力预测曲线偏差场景，在该场景内，采用集中、分散装置构成的储能装置方式，完成新能源系统的储能控制。实验结果证明，该模型能够精准获取不同天气状况下补偿新能源出力预测偏差分布情况，且储能控制性能优秀，可为新能源系统提供储能保障。

Energy storage control model based on compensating deviation of new energy output prediction curve

In order to judge the distribution of the deviation of the new energy output prediction，control the energy storage process，and optimize the energy storage effect of the new energy system，an energy storage control model based on the deviation of the new energy output prediction curve is designed.
Construct a distributed energy system complementary to wind，light，water and new energy.Based on its wind，light，and water new energy power generation principle and energy complementary model，the new energy output is compensated.Due to the randomness of the new energy output after compensation，the prediction box is used to collect data.Compensate the historical information of new energy output，build a prediction deviation distribution probability model，analyze the distribution of the new energy output prediction deviation，and estimate the covariance matrix according to the recursion，Analyze the time correlation of new energy output，and generate a scenario to compensate for the deviation of the new energy output prediction curve in combination with the variational self encoder.In this scenario，the energy storage device composed of centralized and decentralized devices is used to complete the energy storage control of the new energy system.The experimental results show that the model can accurately obtain the distribution of prediction deviation of compensated new energy output under different weather conditions，and the energy storage control performance is excellent，which can provide energy storage guarantee for the new energy system.