基于配方功能的烟叶原料动态化平衡预测及分配方法探索

【目的】为缓解新品类卷烟规模快速增长带来的烟叶原料供给结构性矛盾，实现烟叶原料及时调配、及时优化、及时满足的动态平衡。【方法】以江苏中烟调拨初烤烟叶为材料，采用支持向量机（Support Vector Machine, SVM）、高斯核函数（Radial Basis Function, RBF）等方法构建配方功能预测模型，运用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）建立烟叶适用性评价方法，确定不同配方功能类别的基础保障原料和动态平衡原料。【结果】确定了苏产卷烟的10个配方功能类别，并以香气质、香气量、烟气浓度以及浓劲比等12个烟叶样本特征指标计算烟叶原料的适用性分值和适用性指数；按照配方功能类别，完成对2020年度调拨烟叶的分配，设计形成100个打叶复烤配方模块。【结论】本研究建立了一种基于配方功能的烟叶原料动态化平衡预测及分配方法，可有效指导某一功能类别或相同品牌不同功能类别烟叶原料的配方模块设计。

Exploration of dynamic equilibrium prediction and distribution method of tobacco raw materials based on formula function

  Objective  This study aims to alleviate the structural contradiction of tobacco raw material supply caused by the rapid growth of new cigarette scale and to realize the dynamic equilibrium of timely deployment, timely optimization, timely satisfaction of tobacco raw materials.  Methods  The flue-cured tobacco leaves purchased from China Tobacco Jiangsu Industrial Co., Ltd. were used as the research material. This paper constructed a formula function prediction model by using Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Radial Basis Function (RBF), established the applicability evaluation method of tobacco leaf by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and then identified the basic support materials and dynamic equilibrium materials for the different formula function categories.  Results  Ten formula function categories of cigarettes produced in Jiangsu were determined, and the applicability score and applicability index of tobacco raw materials were calculated with 12 characteristic indexes (aroma quality, aroma quantity, smoke concentration, the ratio of concentration to strength, etc.). Further, according to the formula function category, the allocation of allocated tobacco leaves in 2020 was completed, and 100 formulation modules for threshing and redrying were designed.  Conclusion  In this study, a dynamic equilibrium prediction and distribution method of tobacco raw materials based on formula function was established. This method can effectively guide the formulation module design for tobacco raw materials in a certain functional category or tobacco raw materials of the same brand but in different functional categories.