基于改进SIR模型的项目隐性知识转移因素解析

隐性知识作为组织重要资产，其成功转移与吸收对项目成败具有重要作用。隐性知识转移绩效受到转移主体比例、知识模糊性、接触率、学习意愿、遗忘率等因素的影响。通过类比分析传染病传播机制与项目隐性知识转移过程，引入SIR模型(susceptible infected recovered model)，基于项目成员类型与知识传递过程，建立项目隐性知识转移改进SIR模型，围绕各因素变化对知识转移绩效影响进行仿真分析，进而发现隐性知识转移规律。结果表明，知识模糊性、遗忘率对知识转移绩效具有负向作用；组织成员接触率、学习意愿对转移绩效具有正向作用，可以有效降低其他因素的负向作用。因此，为促进隐性知识转移，应增加知识传播途径、知识学习者人数，提高成员间接触率，降低知识遗忘率，构建项目学习型组织共同体。

Analysis of Project Tacit Knowledge Transfer Factors Based on Improved SIR Model

Tacit knowledge is an important asset of the organization. The successful transfer and absorption of tacit knowledge plays an important role in the success or failure of the project organization. Tacit knowledge transfer performance is affected by various factors, such as the proportion of transfer subjects, knowledge fuzziness, contact rate, learning willingness, and forgetting rate. Through analogy analysis of infectious disease transmission mechanism and project tacit knowledge transfer process, SIR model is introduced. Based on the type of project organization members and knowledge transfer process, an improved SIR model of project tacit knowledge transfer is established. The impact of various factors on knowledge transfer performance is simulated and analyzed. The law of tacit knowledge transfer is found by the simulation of various factors. The results show that knowledge fuzziness and forgetting rate have negative effects on knowledge transfer performance; the contact rate and learning intention of organizational members have positive effects on knowledge transfer performance, and those factors can effectively reduce the negative effect of other factors. Therefore, in order to promote the transfer of tacit knowledge, project organization should increase the ways of knowledge transmission and the number of knowledge learners, improve the indirect contact rate of members, reduce the rate of knowledge forgetting, and build a project-based learning project organization community.