地铁围护结构及支护体系进度计划的蒙特卡罗仿真

为适应地铁施工进度计划不确定性大,易变性强的特点,使用蒙特卡罗仿真分析,对地铁围护结构及支护体系施工进行工期风险优化,以合理控制工期风险。使用Crystal Ball软件,以工序间的关系为基础建立模型,进行蒙特卡罗仿真分析,得出404d内完工概率大于85%;进行灵敏度分析,发现征地拆迁和管线改迁是影响工期的关键活动,可通过增加工期缓冲来保证总体目标的实现。对项目完工概率的容错性进行评估和修正,保证了如期完工。

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF METRO RETAINING STRUCTURE AND SUPPORT SYSTEM SCHEDULE

In order to solve some features of the subway construction schedule such as uncertainty and variability, Monte Carlo simulation using this paper, duration risk optimization of underground enclosure structure and the supporting system construction, so as to achieve the reasonable pretreatment on schedule risk control purposes. The use of Crystal Ball software, the relationship between processes for establishing the model, Monte Carlo simulation analysis, obtained within 404 days of completion probability is greater than 85%, and the sensitivity analysis, time limit for a project found the land requisition buffer on them to ensure and pipeline to move is a the implementation of the fault-tolerance probability of projects completed was evaluated and modified, with realistic guiding significance. key activity duration, increase the overall goal. Through the research, the project completed on schedule