基于博弈模型的隧道施工安全不确定性分析

由于环境条件复杂,隧道施工的安全概率具有很大的不确定性。为了研究隧道施工过程中的安全控制问题,运用博弈理论,建立了不确定性环境条件下施工企业与施工人员之间的博弈模型,并讨论了博弈双方的安全行为与收益矩阵的关系。研究表明:在隧道施工安全决策、管理和组织过程中,施工企业和施工人员的安全控制行为受多种因素影响,包括双方对隧道施工过程安全概率的估计、工程顺利完成后的收益、投入的安全控制成本、发生事故之后的损失和补偿以及对方的策略选择,通过应用实例,分析了不确定性安全概率下博弈双方安全控制策略选择与模型参数之间的关系。

Uncertainty Analysis of Tunnel Construction Safety Based on Game Model

The construction condition of underground tunnel project is complex, and the hidden danger of safety accident in construction site is everywhere, and the safety probability is of an uncertainty. In order to study the safety control problem in the process of tunnel construction, game theory is adopted to establish an uncertain game model between construction enterprise and construction personnel in the safety probability, and the relationship between safety behavior and payoff matrix in the game is discussed. The research shows that safety control behavior of both construction enterprises and construction personnel is affected by many factors in the safety decision-making, management and organization process, including the estimation of safety probability, income after the tunnel construction project, security control costs, the loss and compensation of accident and the other's strategy selection. By the application example, the relationship between the security control strategy selection and the economic parameters in the uncertain security probability was analyzed.