Adaptation to climate change for food security in the lower Mekong Basin |
| |
Authors: | Mohammed Mainuddin Mac Kirby Chu Thai Hoanh |
| |
Affiliation: | (1) CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia;(2) International Water Management Institute, Southeast Asia Regional Office, P. O. Box 4199, Vientiane, Lao PDR |
| |
Abstract: | Variability in water cycles driven by climate change is considered likely to impact rice production in the near future. Rice
is the main staple food for the population in the lower Mekong Basin and the demand for food is expected to grow due to increase
in population. This paper examines the impact of climate change on rice production in the lower Mekong Basin, evaluates some
widely used adaptation options, and analyses their implications for overall food security by 2050. Climate change data used
in the study are the future climate projection for two IPCC SRES scenarios, A2 and B2, based on ECHAM4 General Circulation
Model downscaled to the Mekong region using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) system. In general,
the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand
and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. Irrigated rice may not be affected by climate change
if increased irrigation requirements are met. Negative impact on the yield of rainfed rice can be offset and net increase
in yield can be achieved by applying widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation
and increased fertilizer input. Analysis of the projected production, considering population growth by 2050, suggests that
food security of the basin is unlikely to be threatened by the increased population and climate change, excluding extreme
events such as sea level rise and cyclones. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|