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| 基于EMD及ARMA的自相似网络流量预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 高波,张钦宇,梁永生,刘宁宁,黄程波,张乃通.基于EMD及ARMA的自相似网络流量预测[J].通信学报,2011,32(4):47-56. |
| 作者姓名： | 高波 张钦宇 梁永生 刘宁宁 黄程波 张乃通 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学深圳研究生院,广东深圳,518055;深圳信息职业技术学院信息技术研究所,广东深圳,518029 2. 哈尔滨工业大学深圳研究生院,广东深圳,518055 3. 深圳信息职业技术学院信息技术研究所,广东深圳,518029 4. 中国电子系统设备工程公司研究所,北京,100039 5. 哈尔滨工业大学电子与信息工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150001 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)基金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于ARMA(自回归滑动平均)模型的经验模式分解预测自相似网络流量的方法,进行了理论证明和仿真验证.结果表明,经验模式分解对长相关流量有去相关的作用,采用ARMA模型即可对自相似网络流量准确刻画,不但降低了算法的复杂度,而且预测精度高于径向基函数神经网络的预测精度. |
| 关 键 词： | 自相似 经验模式分解 自回归滑动平均 流量预测 |
Predicting self-similar networking traffic based on EMD and ARMA |
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| GAO Bo,ZHANG Qin-yu,LIANG Yong-sheng,LIU Ning-ning,HUANG Cheng-bo,ZHANG Nai-tong.Predicting self-similar networking traffic based on EMD and ARMA[J].Journal on Communications,2011,32(4):47-56. | |
| Authors: | GAO Bo ZHANG Qin-yu LIANG Yong-sheng LIU Ning-ning HUANG Cheng-bo ZHANG Nai-tong |
| Affiliation: | GAO Bo1,2,ZHANG Qin-yu1,LIANG Yong-sheng2,LIU Ning-ning3,HUANG Cheng-bo2,ZHANG Nai-tong4(1.Shenzhen Graduate School,Harbin Institute of Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China,2.Institute of Information Technology,Shenzhen Institute of Information Technology,Shenzhen 518029,3.Institute of Electronic System Engineering of China,Beijing 100039,4.School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Harbin 150001,China) |
| Abstract: | A novel method based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD) and ARMA was proposed to model and fore-cast self-similar networking traffic.The results demonstrate that EMD had the function of getting rid of the long range dependence(LRD) in traffic data.Therefore,the self-similar traffic processed by EMD could be modeled and predicted well by using ARMA which was a short range dependent(SRD) model.Moreover,the complexity of the proposed method was reduced sharply and the prediction precision was higher than rad... |
| Keywords: | self-similar EMD ARMA traffic forecasting |
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