评价寿命统计分布的信息量模拟

提出了有限数据下寿命分布统计方法的综合评价模型。在确定寿命分布时，主要考虑总体拟合效果、与疲劳物理的一致性和尾部预测安全性3个因素：用失效概率试验值与理论值的相关系数评价总体拟合效果；与疲劳物理的一致性按照给定应力下失效率是否随循环数的增加而增加来确定；通过识别统计分布尾部的变化趋势来完成安全性的预测。通过引入信息理论．在寿命统计分布满足以上3个因素的前提下，建立了综合评价统计分布优劣的定量模型。通过实例分析．阐述了方法的具体应用。

Information Quantity Simulation on Life Distribution

The comprehensive evaluation mode of life distribution is prensented under limited data. The mode of the life distribution takes into account the total fit, the consistency with fatigue physics and the safety of the tail regions. The total fit is assessed by correlation coefficient. The consistency with fatigue physics is analyzed by the hazard rate curve of distribution. The safety of design is predicted by examining the change of predicted errors in the tail regions of distribution. The quantitative comprehensive evaluation mode is con-structed based on information theory when life statistical distribution satisfies the total fit, the consistency with fatigue physics and the safety of the tail regions. The utility of the associated methodology is demon-strated by applications to example.