石油沧桑史 世界风云录—世界石油产量变化世纪末回顾

石油是当代影响国际经济、政治,同时又受国际经济、政治影响的敏感因素。世界石油产量为此相互影响关系和敏感因素的综合反映。百余年世界石油产量的变化历程,大致可分为以下两个阶段和5 个时期。(1)1980年之前,世界石油产量总体呈持续快速增长的趋势,可分为两个时期:①1970 年之前,除受第二次世界大战的影响外,世界石油产量以每10 年翻一番的速度增长;②1970～1979 年10 年间,增长速率减慢,但增长量较大,1979年创历史新高。(2)1980 年以来,世界石油产量经历了两次大的跌落与回升,据此可分为3 个特点不同的发展时期:①1980～1989 年10 年间,石油产量呈大落大起的"V"型深谷,其后期产量呈波状回升;②1990～1995 年,石油产量呈缓降慢升的"U"型浅谷;③1996～1998 年产量持续增长,达历史最高水平。以上世界石油产量的变化及其分期,与两次石油危机、两伊战争、海湾危机、苏联解体、石油价格的猛涨与暴跌等全球经济发展、政治斗争、石油供需关系、主要产油国之间的战争和其国内动荡等重大变化息息相关、彼此影响。

VIEW TWENTIETH CENTURY IN RETROSPECT FOR CHANGES OF WORLD OIL GAS PRODUCTION

Petroleum is a sensitive factor which affects the international economy and politics but is also affected by them,and the world petroleum production is the comprehensive reflection of mutual relationship and sensitive factor.The processes of world petroleum production in the twentieth century can be classified into following two stages and five periods:1.Before 1980,the producton of world petroleum increased at higher speed on the whole.According to the increasing speed,two periods can be roughly divided:(a)Before 1970,with the exception of the period of Second World War,the production of world petroleum had been doubled every ten years.(b)In 1970～1979,the increasing production set a new record in 1979 although the speed of increasing declined.2.Since 1980,three different periods with unique characteristics can be identified according to two major risings and fallings of the world petroleum production.(a)During 1980～1989,the petroleum production,with "V-shape"and great increasing,changed frequently.(b)Between 1990 and 1995,the petroleum production,with"u-shape",increased at the lower speed.(c)In 1996～1998,petroleum production increased at the higher speed and hit an all time high.The world petroleum production is closely related to the two petroleum crises,lran lrag war and gulf crisis,the disintegration of former USSR,and the rise and fall of petroleum price,and also related to the global economy,political struggle,supply and demand of petroleum,the war and political situation among the major countries of petroleum production.