Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model |
| |
Authors: | Justin D Siegel Joaquín De Cea José Enrique Fernández Renán E Rodriguez David Boyce |
| |
Affiliation: | (1) MCT Ltda., Apoquindo 3650 Of. 902, Santiago, Chile;(2) Department of transport Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;(3) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Detailed analyses and comparisons of urban travel forecasts prepared by applying the state-of-practice sequential procedure
and the solution of a combined network equilibrium model are presented. The sequential procedure for solving the trip distribution,
mode choice and assignment problems with feedback is the current practice in most transportation planning agencies, although
its important limitations are well known. The solution of a combined model, in contrast, results from a single mathematical
formulation, which ensures a well-converged and consistent result. Using a real network, several methods for solving the sequential
procedure with feedback are compared to the solution of the combined model ESTRAUS. The results of these methods are shown
to have various levels of instability. The paper concludes with a call for a new paradigm of travel forecasting practice based
on an internally consistent model formulation that can be solved to a level of precision suitable for comparing alternative
scenarios. |
| |
Keywords: | Combined network equilibrium models Sequential procedure Urban travel forecasting |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|