出口结构调整对我国能源需求的影响

出口是推动我国经济发展、带动能源需求快速增长的重要因素。为实现2020年全面小康社会发展目标,确保能源清洁、安全、可持续供应,实现对外承诺减排目标,必须持续大幅度降低单位GDP能耗,合理控制能源消费总量。调整和优化出口结构,降低出口的直接和间接能源消耗,是实现上述目标的重要途径。本文从转变发展方式、破解资源环境约束、提高出口的质量和效益等角度,分析了调整出口结构的必要性。利用投入产出和情景分析方法,对我国出口带来的直接和间接能源消费进行核算,并分析了调整和优化出口结构对我国未来一次能源需求的影响。建议调整"出口导向"的发展战略,减少高载能产品、低附加值机电和轻纺产品出口,加大服务贸易出口,促进对外贸易进一步转型升级。

Research and Analysis on Energy Supply & Demand and CO2 Emission Scenarios of China and Global by Different International Organizations

Export is a key engine of China’s economic growth,driving primary energy demand soaring in the past decades.To achieve an all well-off society in 2020,ensure a clean,safety and sustainable energy supply,as well as accomplish the committed carbon intensity reduction goal,China has to keep reducing the energy intensity of GDP and capping energy demand growth in a rational way.Adjusting the export structure is an import means to reduce the direct and indirect energy export.In this paper,the necessity of export structure optimization is analyzed form different aspects of transforming development patterns,settling resources environment restriction,improving the quality of the export and benefits etc..The amount of embodied energy export is estimated by using an input-output method and scenario analysis approach,as well as the impact on China’s energy demand in 2020.The paper proposes that China should adjust its export-oriented development strategy,reduce export of energy intensive and low value-added products,and boost export of commercial services to improve its competitiveness.