围堰施工导流风险率不确定性分析研究

施工导流风险评价是导流工程设计的重要依据,应综合考虑水文、水力等方面的不确定性影响。针对传统导流风险计算仅考虑不确定性因素的单一概率分布并固定分布参数值、忽略了分布及参数的不确定性的问题,基于对多元不确定性因素的Monte-Carlo仿真,综合考虑导流系统中水文和水力因素的分布和分布参数的不确定性,深入分析了导流系统风险率的不确定性。结果表明,水文与水力因素的参数不确定性对导流风险率的计算有较大影响,考虑水文与水力参数不确定性计算所得的导流风险率服从正态分布。

Uncertainty Analysis of Construction Diversion Risk of Cofferdam

Risk evaluation of construction diversion is an important basis for diversion project design. The hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties should be considered comprehensively. In the previous study of diversion risk, only the single probability distribution and fixed distribution parameters of uncertainty factors are concerned, and its distribution function and parameters uncertainty are neglected. Based on the multivariate uncertainties Monte-Carlo simulation, the uncertainty of diversion risk rate is analyzed by considering distribution of hydrologic and hydraulic factors and parameters uncertainty. The results indicate that uncertainty of hydrologic and hydraulic parameters has large impact on risk rate of diversion, and the risk rate of diversion obeys normal distribution considering uncertainty of hydrologic and hydraulic parameters.