冷贮备串联系统可靠性指标的估计

运用最大似然法和经验Bayes方法，研究冷贮备串联系统可靠性指标的估计问题，分别给出了该系统失效率、可靠度函数与平均寿命的点估计。最后利用随机模拟方法，对两种估计结果进行了比较，结果表明，经验Bayes估计优于最大似然估计。

On Improving the Estimation of the Reliability Performances for Cold Standby Series System

When applying FPA (failure probability analysis) to estimating the reliability performances in cold standby series system, it suffers from two shortcomings: (1) the parameters of life distribution for all elements must be known as constants; (2) FPA is not quite satisfactory for small sample case. We overcome these two shortcomings by experimenting with EBE (empirical Bayes estimation) and MLE (maximum likelihood estimation). Before EBE can be used, we have to obtain first the Bayes estimation of the reliability performances for cold standby series system. Then we obtain the estimated reliablity performences by EBE and MLE. At last, we compare the MLE results with the EBE results by means of Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show that the accuracy of the EBE is better than that of the MLE. The method proposed in this paper can be used to analyze the reliabilities of cold standby series systems in mechanical and electrical appliances. This work remains to be done.