九江大堤溃坝渗流的可靠性分析

对九江市防护大堤发生的严重渗流溃口问题进行了可靠性分析和评定.在分析中，结合九江市堤防溃口的渗流破坏机理，采用二维饱和渗流有限元和概率分析方法，从渗流稳定性的角度，研究了在随机条件下九江市防护大堤的抗渗安全问题的可靠性分析方法.讨论了发生溃堤的主要原因，指出了在1998年长江百年一遇的洪水条件下，九江大堤溃口断面的抗渗可靠性仅为55%.同时也证实了九江大堤被冲溃口的必然性.研究表明，对防洪堤坝的抗渗稳定性进行可靠性的概率分析是一种更科学、更合理的堤坝抗渗安全性分析方法.

Reliability analysis for seepage burst of Jiujiang dike on Changjiang river

This work presented the reliability analysis and judgment of the serious seepage burst in the Jiujiang dike on Changjiang river during the huge pluvial disaster in 1998. The safety of the Jiujiang dike was evaluated from the viewpoint of the seepage stability by the probability analysis and two dimensional saturated seepage finite element method combining with the mechanism of seepage burst. Analysis revealed that the major reason for the seepage burst was that under the 1998 pluvial condition in the Changjiang river, the safety reliability of the Jiujiang dike against seepage disaster was of very low level, only about 55%. The results show that the reliability method based on probability analysis for the seepage stability of levee project is relatively scientific and reasonable.