考虑气象影响的电力系统运行可靠性评估

气象因素会对线路运行温度产生影响，而线路运行温度与线路的阻抗以及故障停运率等参数密切相关，现有研究在进行系统运行可靠性评估时未充分考虑气象因素对线路多参数的影响。为此，文中首先以气象相依的输电线路热平衡方程为基础，研究考虑气象因素的线路温度计算方法和气象条件相依的输电线路实时容量模型，在此基础上建立导线温度相依的线路阻抗参数模型和线路实时停运模型。然后，提出一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的考虑气象因素的电力系统运行可靠性评估方法。最后，以IEEE 14和IEEE RTS96节点修改系统为例，分析气象因素对输电线路实时参数容量、温度、阻抗、故障率等以及电力系统运行可靠性指标的影响，算例结果验证了所提出的考虑气象因素的线路运行可靠性模型和系统运行可靠性评估方法的正确性。

Operational reliability evaluation of power system considering meteorological impacts

Meteorological factors have an impact on the operating temperature of a line, and the operating temperature of a line is closely related to some line parameters including the impedance and fault outage rate. The existing literature does not fully consider the influence of meteorological factors on the multiple parameters of a line when evaluating the operation reliability of power systems. In this context, based on weather-dependent heat balance equation of transmission line, the calculation method of line temperature considering meteorological factors and the real-time capacity model of transmission line dependent on meteorological conditions are first studied. And then, the impedance parameter model and the real-time outage rate model of transmission line are established, which are dependent on the line temperature. Next, a power system operation reliability evaluation method considering meteorological factors is proposed based on Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, taking the IEEE 14 and IEEE RTS 96 modified systems as examples, the influence of meteorological factors on the real time parameters of transmission lines including capacity, temperature, impedance, failure rate, and on the operation reliability indices of power systems are analyzed. Result of case studies verify the correctness of the proposed operation reliability model of transmission line and the operation reliability evaluation method of power systems considering meteorological factors.