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我国能源安全形势技术分析
作者姓名:李锦煜  刘锐剑  周朝阳  栗楠  唐方成
作者单位:北京化工大学,北京化工大学,北京化工大学,北京化工大学,北京化工大学
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20YJC630087)
摘    要:能源安全作为国家安全体系的重要组成部分,对于我国社会主义现代化强国的建设至关重要。文章以国际能源署对能源安全的定义为基础,从生产保障能力、进口多元程度、经济可承受性三个维度构建能源安全评价指标体系。在此基础上,组合运用AHP-熵权法和改进TOPSIS评价方法,得到不受评价范围和评价期影响的相对固定的能源安全指数。充分考虑能源种类对各国能源安全支撑程度的不同和能源安全主观发展因素的影响,本文主要研究以传统化石能源为主的一次能源。通过对中美两国2015-2021年的化石能源安全水平进行综合评价与测度,得出我国与美国在供应保障能力、用能成本等方面存在差距,仍需进一步提高我国能源生产能力,加快构建新型能源体系,提升能源自给率,扩大能源国际合作规模,降低用能成本,保障能源安全。

关 键 词:能源安全  评价指标体系  TOPSIS  AHP-熵权法  化石能源  多指标评价
收稿时间:2022/12/28 0:00:00
修稿时间:2023/3/17 0:00:00

Technical analysis of China's energy security situation
Authors:LI Jinyu  LIU Ruijian  ZHOU Chaoyang  LI Nan  TANG Fangcheng
Affiliation:School of Economics & Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100031, China
Abstract:As the root of the construction of an energy power, energy security is crucial to the construction of a strong socialist modernization country in China. Based on the definition of energy security by the International Energy Agency, this paper constructs an energy security evaluation index system from three dimensions: production security capacity, import diversification degree and economic affordability. On this basis, the AHP-entropy weight method and TOPSIS evaluation method are combined to obtain a relatively fixed energy security index that is not affected by the evaluation scope and evaluation period. Taking into full consideration the different degrees of energy types supporting energy security in each country and the influence of subjective development factors of energy security, this paper focuses on primary energy sources mainly based on traditional fossil energy .Through a comprehensive evaluation and measurement of the fossil energy security level between China and the United States from 2015-2021, it is concluded that there are gaps between China and the United States in terms of supply security capacity and energy cost, and it is still necessary to further improve China''s energy production capacity, accelerate the construction of a new energy system, improve the energy self-sufficiency rate, expand the scale of international cooperation in energy, reduce energy cost, and guarantee energy security.
Keywords:energy security  analytical hierarchy process (AHP)  technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS)  primary energy  production assurance capability  import diversification  economic affordability
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