考虑参与碳交易市场的大规模屋顶光伏经济性分析

屋顶光伏迎来大规模发展，同时随着我国碳交易市场的不断完善，大规模屋顶光伏发电所产生的碳指标可通过企业履约或者参与到碳交易市场中进行交易，从而获得除电费以外的收益。针对大规模屋顶光伏项目如何参与到碳交易市场以及进行碳交易对项目经济性的影响程度问题，文中首先研究了屋顶光伏项目参与碳交易市场的路径和方法；其次基于发电模型，建立了含碳交易收益的屋顶光伏全寿命周期经济性模型；然后为了定量分析碳交易收益，提出一种基于差分阈值滤波法的改进灰色预测GM（1,1）模型对未来碳价进行预测；最后，通过算例验证了参与碳交易市场的大规模屋顶光伏项目具有较好的经济性。

Economic analysis of large-scale rooftop photovoltaics considering carbon trading market

Rooftop photovoltaics (PV) develop on a large scale. Meanwhile, with the continuous improvement of China''s carbon trading market, the carbon produced by large-scale rooftop photovoltaic power generation can be traded through enterprise compliance or participation in the carbon trading market, so as to obtain benefits other than electricity charges. In view of how large-scale rooftop PV projects participate in the carbon trading market and the impact of carbon trading on the project economy, this paper firstly studies the path and method of rooftop PV projects participate in the carbon trading market. Secondly, based on the power generation model, a life-cycle economic model of rooftop PV with carbon trading income was established. Thirdly, in order to quantitatively analyze the income of carbon trading, an improved grey prediction GM (1,1) model based on differential threshold filtering method is proposed to predict the future carbon price. Finally, an example is given to verify that large-scale rooftop PV projects participating in the carbon trading market have better economic efficiency.