WRF-Hydro模型参数在河西内陆河流域的敏感性分析

为研究WRF-Hydro模型参数在河西内陆河流域的敏感性，以西营河流域九条岭水文站以上区域为研究区，在离线模式下利用2015—2018年的全球预报系统(GFS)数据驱动WRF-Hydro模型。基于LH-OAT方法对WRF-Hydro模型的6个主要参数对不同评价指标和空间分辨率的汇流演算网格的敏感性进行了分析，定量计算了各参数的敏感性指标，划分了敏感度等级，并结合典型洪水分析了各参数对洪水过程线的具体影响。结果表明：河道曼宁糙率乘子(MANNFAC)为极敏感参数，入渗系数(REFKDT)、土壤饱和导水率(REFDK)、深层导水系数(slope)为敏感参数，地表糙率乘子(OVROUGHRTFAC)为一般敏感参数，地表持水深度乘子(RETDEPRTFAC)为不敏感参数；各参数的敏感性并不是一成不变的，参数敏感度会受到评价指标的影响，有一定程度的变化；随着汇流演算网格空间分辨率的变化，各参数全局敏感度也会有小幅变化，但参数的全局敏感度等级不发生改变；MANNFAC对峰现时间的调节效果最好，REFKDT和REFDK对洪量和洪峰流量的调节效果显著，slope可以很好地调节洪水过程线的形状。

Sensitivity analysis of WRF-Hydro model parameters in Hexi Inland River Basin

In order to study the sensitivity of WRF-Hydro model parameters in the Hexi Inland River Basin, the area above the Jiutiaoling Hydrological Station in the Xiying River Basin was taken as the research area.The WRF-Hydro model was driven by global forecast system (GFS) data from 2015 to 2018 in standalone mode. The latin-hypercube one-factor-at-a-time (LH-OAT) method was used to analyze the six main parameters of the WRF-Hydro model and was carried out with confluence grids of different evaluation objectives and different spatial resolutions. The sensitivity index of each parameter was quantitatively calculated and classified. Combined with a typical flood, the specific influence of each parameter on flood hydrograph was analyzed. The results show that the Manning roughness multiplier (MANNFAC) is an extremely sensitive parameter. The infiltration coefficient (REFKDT), the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (REFDK), and the deep hydraulic conductivity (slope) are sensitive parameters. The surface roughness multiplier (OVROUGHRTFAC) is a general sensitive parameter, and the surface water holding depth (RETDEPRTFAC) is an insensitive parameter. The sensitivity of each parameter is not static, and the parameter sensitivity can be affected by the evaluation index, and a certain degree of change exists. With the variation of the spatial resolution of the confluence calculation grid, the global sensitivity of each parameter can also change slightly, but the global sensitivity level of the parameter does not change. MANNFAC has the best adjustment effect on peak time, REFKDT and REFDK have significant adjustment effect on flood volume and peak, and slope can adjust the shape of flood hydrograph well.