新型掠飞末敏弹的捕获概率分析

针对掠飞末敏弹新型扫描机理的作战效能进行评估，研究末敏弹在弹道末段的捕获特性。通过坐标变换的方法得到掠飞末敏弹的扫描线方程，耦合求解其六自由度弹道方程组，得到了弹丸的稳态扫描区域，通过证明扫描依赖区结论，进一步推导求解了捕获概率的解析公式。结果表明：掠飞末敏弹的空间扫描轨迹为螺旋线、扫描区域为圆柱体，平面上的扫描区域为左半椭圆；增加弹丸初速、降低弹丸射角、准确预估目标运动，能有效提升掠飞末敏弹的捕获概率，其中初速的影响更胜一筹；解析公式求得捕获概率与蒙特卡洛打靶法计算结果吻合较好，验证了公式的正确性。

Research on Acquisition Probability of a Novel Hedgehopping Terminal Sensitive Projectile

The operational effectiveness of a novel scanning mechanism of the hedgehopping terminal sensitive projectile is evaluated, and the acquisition performance of the terminal sensitive projectile on terminal trajectory is studied. The coordinate transformation is used to obtain the scanning linear equation of hedgehopping terminal sensitive projectile, and the coupled solution of its 6-DOF trajectory equation set is solved so that the steady scanning area could be determined. The acquisition probability expression is derived by proving the scanning dependent area theory. The results indicate that the space scanning track of the hedgehopping terminal sensitive projectile is helical, the space scanning area is cylindrical, and the scanning area on the plane is semi-elliptical. The acquisition probability can be significantly improved by decreasing the firing angle, estimating the target movement exactly, and increasing the initial velocity of projectile. The acquisition probability calculated using the analytical expression agrees with the results predicted based on the Monte Carlo shooting method, which verifies the correctness of the analytical expression.