城市化与工业化的因果关系——以安徽省宿州市为例

利用安徽省宿州市1999—2010年的统计数据,运用塞尔奎因-钱纳里标准法分析其城市化与工业化发展阶段,采用协整检验、Granger因果检验对其城市化与工业化的因果关系进行实证研究。结果表明：1）宿州工业化和城市化水平低于全国平均水平,均处于初期发展阶段;2）宿州城市化与工业化有高度相关关系,城市化滞后于工业化;3）宿州当前城市化发展是工业化发展的Granger原因,加快城市化发展有利于促进工业化水平提高;4）宿州城市化水平与第二产业增加值比重和第三产业增加值比重具有长期稳定的协整关系,但与非农就业人口比重不存在长期稳定的均衡关系;5）宿州城市化水平与第二产业增加值比重和第三产业增加值比重的弹性系数分别为0.21和0.86,说明其城市化水平对第三产业的拉动作用要比对第二产业的拉动作用更大一些。因此宿州市应促进人口向中心城区的集聚,发挥城市化对工业化的促进作用。

Causality Between Urbanization And Industrialization:A Case Study of Suzhou City, An hui Province

There are few researches among empirical research on the causal relationship of urbanization and industrialization in less developed areas. The purpose of the paper is to discuss the causality between urbanization and industrialization in Suzhou city, Anhui province. Stages of development of urbanization and industrialization of Suzhou city are analyzed by Chenery-Syrquin＇s standard patterns. Then, causality of them is further analyzed by methods including Co-integration test; Granger Causality test. Results show：（1） the level of industrialization and urbanization of Suzhou are at the early stage of development, which are below the average level of China.（2） Urbanization is highly related to the industrialization in Suzhou city, but the former is lagging behind the latter.（3） It is important that the level of urbanization should be improved so as to develop the industrialization, because urbanization is Currently Granger causality of industrialization in Suzhou.（4） the level of urbanization in Suzhou is of long-term stable co-integration relationship with the ratio of the value-added of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.（5） The ratio of the secondary industry elasticity is 0.21, while the ratio of the tertiary industry elasticity is 0.86. That is to say, the urbanization contributes more to the tertiary industry than to the secondary industry. It is concluded that, as a whole, we should make preferential policies to accelerate the population to gather more in the city area so as to make urbanization play a more important role in the industrialization in Suzhou city.