| 油气勘探开发的二种期权决策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 高世葵,董大忠.油气勘探开发的二种期权决策方法[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004,33(4):486-490. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高世葵 董大忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 石油大学,资源与信息学院,北京,102249;中国地质大学,人文经管学院,北京,100083
2. 石油大学,资源与信息学院,北京,102249;中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据石油勘探开发项目典型的实物期权特征，研究了2种期权决策方法：一是对于勘探项目，将Black—Scholes期权定价模型中的5个变量缩减为2个，作为勘探项目投资决策的二维空间的期权准则；二是对于开发项目，利用风险中性定价方法的二叉树期权定价模型作为开发项目的时机决策的期权方法，为油气开发项目的投资决策提供科学依据．
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| 关 键 词： | 油气勘探 开发 期权 决策 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1964(2004)04-0486-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年10月29 |
Two Decision-Making Methods of Real Options for Oil-Gas Exploration and Development |
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| GAO Shi-kui.Two Decision-Making Methods of Real Options for Oil-Gas Exploration and Development[J].Journal of China University of Mining & Technology,2004,33(4):486-490. |
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| Authors: | GAO Shi-kui |
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| Affiliation: | GAO Shi-kui~ |
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| Abstract: | Based on the characteristic of oil-gas exploration and development projects, two decision-making methods for real options were discussed respectively for exploration and development projects in order to invest effectively. For an exploration project, a decision-making rule of real options for a two-dimensional investment space was put forward by reducing the variables in the Black-Scholes model from five to two, while for a development project, the binomial method of real options was taken as a decision-making method of development occasion. |
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| Keywords: | real options oil-gas exploration and development decision-making method |
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