基于最大负荷预测的地区电网静态安全分析

从面向规划的角度出发,提出了一种基于最大负荷预测的地区电网静态安全分析方法,对面向规划的静态安全分析的特点、最大负荷预测模型的建立及使用和静态安全分析的方法等进行了研究与探讨,改进了年最大负荷的取值方法,并结合大量的负荷采样数据,生成了负荷特性曲线库,明确了在此基础上的软件实现方法、结构流程和功能.所开发的软件应用表明,该方法便于发现电力系统的预期网架结构在未来预测负荷水平下的安全隐患,并能辅助使用人员作出合理规划.

SECURITY ANALYSIS OF DISTRICT POWER NETWORK BASED ON THE MAXIMAL LOAD FORECASTING

From the planning point of view, a maximal load forecasting based security analysis method for district power network is proposed. Here, the feature of planning oriented security analysis, the establishment and use of maximal load forecasting model and the method of security analysis are researched, the method to acquire the value of annual peak load is improved, based on a lot of sampled load data a warehouse of load characteristics is formed, on this basis the realization method of this software, its architecture and flow chart and functions are determined. The applications of the developed software show that using the proposed security planning method it is convenient for the anticipate district power network structure to discover the hidden trouble of system security under forecasted future load level and to assist the user to work out reasonable planning.