| 道路累计交通量的灰色预测方法探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘树堂,商庆森,姚占勇,李文革. 道路累计交通量的灰色预测方法探讨[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 1999, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘树堂 商庆森 姚占勇 李文革 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东工业大学土木工程系!济南 250061(刘树堂，商庆森，姚占勇)，东明县炼油厂(李文革) |
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| 摘 要： | 结合实例，就应用灰色预测方法对累计交通量进行预测时灰色模型的建立问题作了对比分析．分析表明，预测不应仅局限于用 Ｇ Ｍ（１，１）模型，应根据已有交通量分布情况，建立多种函数的预测模型，经分析比较后选用之同时将静、动态 Ｇ Ｍ（１，１）模型的预测结果进行了比较，结果表明后者的预测误差反而较大
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| 关 键 词： | 交通流量 灰色预测 建立模型 |
AN EXPLORATION ON THE GREY PROGNOSIS METHOD OF HIGHWAY CUMULATIVE TRAFFIC VOLUME |
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| Liu Shutang Shang Qingsen Yiao Zhanyong Li Wenge. AN EXPLORATION ON THE GREY PROGNOSIS METHOD OF HIGHWAY CUMULATIVE TRAFFIC VOLUME[J]. Journal of Shandong University of Technology, 1999, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Liu Shutang Shang Qingsen Yiao Zhanyong Li Wenge |
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| Abstract: | Com bined the practicalexam ple, the problem of the grey m odelbuildingis analyzed com paratively w hen the cum ulative traffic is predicted w ith the grey prognosism ethod. It is show n thatthe prognosis shouldn'tbe lim ited to the G M(1,1) m odelonly,and m any kinds of function prognosis m odelaccording to the traffic volum e distributioncondition should be considered. And then the m ore reasonable m odel m ay be usedselectively after being com pared. At the m eantim e,the results of the static G M (1,1)m odeland the dynam ic one are com pared. Itis show n thatthe error ofthe back is greater. |
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| Keywords: | ywords Traffic flow Grey predictions Model building |
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