我国二氧化碳排放的特点、趋势及政策取向

改革开放以来。我国二氧化碳排放总量从1978年的148329×10^4t增加到2008年的689654×10^4t．年均增长5．3％。与此同时，二氧化碳排放强度总体上呈较快下降趋势，但1999年以后下降速度放缓。我国二氧化碳排放强度明显高于国际水平。分析其原因，从需求结构看是经济增长过度依赖出口：从产业结构看是由于过度依赖工业，尤其是重化工业：而以煤为主的能源资源结构和能源生产结构，直接导致我国单位能源使用排放的二氧化碳高于其他国家。我国2015年二氧化碳排放量预测值在82．28×10^8-90．508×10^8t之间，减排形势不容乐观。由于我国还处在工业化、城镇化加快发展阶段，在以煤为主的特定资源禀赋条件下，减缓二氧化碳排放的主要路径是减少能源消费，即节能。节能的主要着力点在于充分发挥政府和市场的作用，加快提高能源技术效率，包括深化能源产品定价机制改革；加强政府的社会性管制，使环境社会成本充分内部化；建立绿色税收体系，支持低碳经济发展；培育碳排放交易市场。

Characteristics and Trends of CO2 Emission in China and Chinese Policy Orientation

Since the imposition of the reform and opening-up policy,China＇s total carbon dioxide emissions increased at an annual rate of 5.3% from 148329×10^4t in 1978 to 689654×10^4t in 2008.In the same period, China＇s overall carbon dioxide emission intensity declined rapidly although this decline has slowed since 1999.On the whole,China＇s carbon dioxide intensity is considerably higher than international levels.The rea- sons are：from the demand perspective,China＇s economic growth heavily relies on export;from the industrial structure perspective,China relies on the industrial sector,particularly the heavy chemical industry,too much. The coal-predominant energy consumption and production structure has directly led to China＇s unit carbon dioxide emission from energy consumption being higher than those of other eountries.China＇s carbon dioxide emission in 2015 is estimated to range from 82.28×10^8 to 90.508×10^8t,meaning there is no rosy picture for the country＇s effort to achieve its emission reduction objectives.As China is in a stage of accelerating indus- trialization and urbanization and coal remains the main player in the country＇s energy mix,the main approach China can use to reducing carbon dioxide emissions is to reduce energy consumption,i.e.through energy con- servation.To do so ,China should give full scope to the government and market forces ,quicken its pace of im- proving the efficiency of energy technology （including the reform of the energy product pricing mechanism）, strengthen government＇s societal regulation to allow for the full internalization of social cost of the environ- ment,establish a ＂green＂ taxation system to support low-carbon economy and develop the carbon market.