基于试验数据建模的改进地震易损性分析

改进的疲劳模型强调了抗震性能的统计相关性,这是从所有普遍但是未知的影响因素中归纳出来的。提出的模型通过个体试件极限状态计算公式的一般变量来考虑相关性。此外,连续地震中对同一个构件的观察结果也具有相关性,在评估建模参数时,考虑了这个事实。通过变电站设备失效的一系列算例证实,改进的公式可以导致与经验结论明显不同的预测结果。此外,传统方法低估了疲劳估测相关的统计不确定性。对统计的不确定性效果和系统疲劳性进行了总结,数值算例证明这些影响很明显,并且需要在冗余系统中加以考虑。

Improved Seismic Fragility Modeling from Empirical Data

The improved empirical fragility model addresses statistical dependence among observations of seismic perfor mances , which arises fromcommon but unknown factors influencing the observations . The proposed model accounts for this dependence by explicitlyincluding common variables in the for mulation of the li mit state for individual components . Additionally ,the fact that observations of the same component during successive earthquakes are correlated is considered in the esti mation of the model parameter...