基于贝叶斯网络的航班保障服务时间动态估计

针对航班保障服务时间估计的问题，考虑到航班保障服务流程的特殊性、复杂性以及影响因素的不确定性，提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络（BN）的航班保障服务时间估计模型。该模型把航空领域的专家知识与历史数据的机器学习相结合，使用贝叶斯网络的增量学习特性动态地调整BN模型，使其适应新的变化，进而不断更新航班保障服务时间的估计值。使用国内某大型枢纽机场信息系统内提取的数据，通过期望最大化（EM）方法对模型进行训练，得到了测试结果。实验结果分析与模型评价表明，所提方法能有效估计航班保障服务时间且具有较高的准确度。敏感性分析表明，航班到达时段的航班密度对航班保障服务时间影响最强。

Dynamic estimation about service time of flight support based on Bayesian network

Concerning the problems of estimating the service time of airport flight support, and the particularity, complexity, and influence factors' uncertainty of flight support service process, an estimation model of flight support service time based on Bayesian Network (BN) was proposed. The knowledge of aviation experts and the machine learning of historical data were combined by the proposed model, and the incremental learning characteristic of BN was used to adjust the BN model dynamically, so as to make itself adapt to new conditions and constantly update the service time estimates of flight support. By using the data selected from a large domestic hub airport information system, the proposed BN model was trained via the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the test results. The analysis of experimental results and model evaluation show that the proposed method can effectively estimate the service time of flight support and has higher accuracy. In addition, the sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the flight density during flight arrival time has the strongest influence on flight support service time.