基于GAMS的内蒙古河套灌区水资源联合利用分析

根据国家和地方对黄河水量的分配比例,未来内蒙河套灌区引黄水量为40亿m3/a,而目前河套灌区多年平均引黄水量为52亿m3/a。随着引黄水量的逐年减少和灌区经济的快速发展,本地区水资源供需矛盾更加突出,合理利用有限水资源成为灌区的首要任务。通过灌区现状水资源供需平衡分析,并根据河套灌区中长期规划和水资源利用特点,设计了2种引黄水和地下水联合利用方案,同时对规划年水资源联合利用情况进行了优化分析,并对不同方案下的地下水动态变化进行了模拟。结果表明,通过优化产业结构、增加井渠结合灌溉面积,有效利用地下水资源包括微咸水,可以在40亿m3/a引黄水量下维持灌区可持续发展。

Evaluation of Current Status and Trend Prediction of Rural Water Resources Protection in Hunan Province

With the increasing of urbanization and the rapid economic development, the rural water resources protection has more and more problems. In this paper, an evaluation index system of rural water resources protection in Hunan province was developed using the grey correlation degree approach based on the optimal combination weight method, and this evaluation index system was applied to investigate the status of rural water resources protection in Hunan province in 2010. .The results showed that four indexes are the most relevant factors with rural water resources protection, including the vegetation coverage, the completeness and implementation of policies, the effective irrigation rate, and the average fertilizer application rate per hectare. Finally, the improved model of GM(1.1) was used to predicate the variation trends of ten main indexes from 2011 to 2016. Model test parameters reached the qualified levels. The predicted results can offer decision-making references for rural water resources protection.