南水北调西线工程引水区气候变化趋势分析

以南水北调西线工程引水区及邻近地区共13个气象站近60年的降雨、温度、日照时数、平均风速、平均湿度、平均水汽压资料为基础,分别运用Mann-Kendal法、Hurst系数法和小波方法对气象系列进行趋势、持续性和周期性分析。结果表明:各气象站温度年序列均呈显著上升趋势,而四季中的冬季上升尤为明显;降雨年序列92%的站点呈不明显上升趋势,但在春季上升显著;日照年序列64%的站点呈下降趋势。在空间分布上,气候因子趋势显著的站点多集中在河源段。各气象因子的Hurst系数均大于0.5,说明系列正持续性效应明显,未来变化趋势与过去基本一致。此外,各气象因子序列具有较明显的6¹8年震荡周期。

Climate Change Trend Analysis in Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Based on the precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, mean wind speed, average relative humidity, and average vapor pressure data at 13 meteorological stations in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and adjacent regions over the past 60 years, the Mann-Kendall test, Hurst coefficient method, and wavelet method were used to perform the trend, continuity, and periodicity analysis on these meteorological factors. The results indicated that (1) the temperature at each station increases significantly, especially in the winter; (2) annual precipitation at 92% of total stations has an insignificant increasing trend, but precipitation has a significant increasing trend in the spring; and (3) annual sunshine duration at 64% of total stations shows a decreasing trend. Stations that have apparent variation trends of meteorological factors often belong to headwater catchment. Hurst coefficients of meteorological factors are were all greater than 0.5, which indicated a positive long-term continuity and that the variation trend in future is similar to that in the past. Morover, each meteorological factor sequence had an obvious cycle of 6 to 18 years.