| 季节性AR模型在葛洲坝月径流预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 孟明星,王金文,黄真. 季节性AR模型在葛洲坝月径流预报中的应用[J]. 吉林水利, 2005, 0(1): 26-28 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 孟明星 王金文 黄真 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北,武汉,430074
2. 湖南五凌水电开发有限责任公司,湖南,长沙,410000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国长江三峡工程开发总公司《三峡数字梯级电力生产决策支持系统》项目。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 自回归模型属于线性平稳模型，只能描述平稳序列的统计特性。当水文序列具有季节性变化时，其统计特性则随季节而变，即随时间而变。文章探讨了季节性自回归模型运用中需注意的一些问题．并将其用来做葛洲坝入库月径流预报，取得了较好的效果。
|
| 关 键 词： | 季节性自回归模型 月径流预报 葛洲坝 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-2846(2005)01-0026-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-11-12 |
Seasonal Autoregressive Model and Its Application in Forecasting Monthly Runoff for Gezhouba |
| |
| MENG Ming-xing,WANG Jin-wen,HUANG Zhen. Seasonal Autoregressive Model and Its Application in Forecasting Monthly Runoff for Gezhouba[J]. Jilin Water Resources, 2005, 0(1): 26-28 |
| |
| Authors: | MENG Ming-xing WANG Jin-wen HUANG Zhen |
| |
| Abstract: | The autoregressive model is a kind of linear-steady-models.so it just describes the statistics characteristic of steady array.When the hydrology array changes according to the seasons,the statistics characteristic also changes,that is,it changes with time.This paper approaches some problems noticed in the application of autoregressive model,and introduces its application in the monthly runoff forecast of the gezhouba and gaining better effictiveness. |
| |
| Keywords: | Seasonal autoregressive model forecasting monthly runoff Gezhouba |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
