RISK DISK: A PC decision aid for human performance analysis

RISK DISK_CR is a set of IBM compatible PC diskettes that provide estimates from data, of the probabilities that certain tasks are finished within relevant time limits (windows) by different agents (crews). An important application is to performance of time-sensitive safety-related human interactions required during nuclear power plant operation.

The probability of satisfactory performance may be assessed from nuclear plant-specific data, augmented by other relevant data as desired, using modified log-normal and Weibull models. Procedures for assessing model fit, and for deriving informative error bounds, are made available.

There is no implication that RISK DISK actually calculates risk, in the sense of probability of an event multiplied by its consequence or penalty.