“十三五”全国油气资源勘查开采规划执行情况中期评估与展望

目前"十三五"进程过半,开展油气资源勘探开发规划中期评估,及时发现趋势性、风险性问题,提出加强和改善意见建议,有助于增强国内油气资源的供给能力。为此,基于我国《石油发展"十三五"规划》《天然气发展"十三五"规划》等专项规划,结合国内外经济形势,评估了上述规划实施以来的油气储量与产量目标完成情况、重点任务实施进展情况,探讨了目前面临的主要问题,并提出了增强规划实施的意见和建议。评估结果表明:①截至2018年底,我国石油、天然气、煤层气和页岩气新增探明地质储量基本达到规划预期,相继发现鄂尔多斯盆地南梁、环江等多个亿吨级油田,鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格气田和四川盆地安岳气田等多个千亿立方米级大气田;②石油产量连续3年下降,天然气产量稳步增加,呈现出"油降气增"的态势,油气可持续发展形势较为严峻。结论认为:①规划执行情况总体良好,"十三五"后期需要切实采取有效措施,全力推进油气储量、产量持续增长,保障国家能源供应安全;②深层、深水盆地油气将成为未来增储上产的重点区域,是我国油气资源勘探开发的重要战略接替区;③非常规油气增储上产比重将逐步增大,致密油气、页岩气、煤层气和天然气水合物等非常规油气资源成为增储的重要组成部分;④我国将进入天然气储量、产量快速增长阶段。

Mid-term evaluation and prospect of the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for the National Oil and Gas Resources Exploration and Mining Plan

Since more than half of the "13th Five-Year Plan" has been carried out, it is conducive to enhancing domestic oil and gas supply capacity to conduct the mid-term evaluation of oil and gas resources exploration and development planning, to timely discover trends and risks, and to put forward opinions and suggestions. In view of this, based upon the 13th Five-Year Planning reports on Oil & Gas Development, this paper, in combination with economic situation at home and abroad, evaluates the goal accomplishment and progress in implementing key tasks related to oil and gas reserves and productivity, discusses the major problems at present, and finally puts forward suggestions on enhancing the implementation of planning. The evaluation results demonstrate that by the end of 2018, the new proved geological reserves of oil, natural gas, coalbed methane gas (CBM) and shale gas basically had met the planning expectations; several hundred million ton oil fields like Nanliang, Huanjiang, etc. in the Ordos Basin, and several gas fields of 100 billion cubic meter like the Sulige gas field in the Ordos Basin, the Anyue gas field in the Sichuan Basin, and so on, had been discovered. Besides, the output of oil has declined for three consecutive years, and the output of natural gas has increased steadily, showing a trend of "oil down and gas up", which shows the sustainable development of oil and gas is more severe. The following conclusions are thus achieved. (1) Although the implementation of the plan is generally good, it is still necessary in recent years to take effective measures to fully promote the growth of oil and gas reserves and production, and ensure the security of the national energy supply. (2) Deep basins and deep-water basins will become the key potential areas for future oil and gas reserves and output increment, and will be the strategic replacement areas for oil and gas resources exploration and development in China. (3) The proportion of unconventional oil and gas will gradually increase, and tight oil and gas, shale gas, CBM and natural gas hydrate will become an important part of energy reserves increase. (4) China will enter a rapid-growth stage of natural gas reserves and production.