基于Pignistic相似度与改进DS证据理论的综合评估方法

针对标准的Dempster-Shafer（DS）证据理论在证据冲突情况下决策准确率低与评估稳定性差的问题，提出一种基于Pignistic相似度与改进DS证据理论的综合评估方法。由Pignistic概率转换求得各类证据的相似度，计算对应的支持度与自适应权重，引入不确定命题推导出改进的证据合成规则。结合某航道实际通航状况进行算例分析，验证该方法的有效性与可靠性。分析结果表明，所提出的方法能正确处理不确定性条件下证据之间的冲突并能给出稳定决策结果。

Synthesis assessment method based on Pignistic similarity and improved DS evidence theory

In view of both low decision accuracy and poor assessment stability from conflict evidences by using the standard Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory, this paper presented a synthesis assessment method based on the Pignistic similarity and the improved DS evidence theory. At first, the paper applied the Pignistic probability transformation to achieve the similarity of each evidence, and then computed the corresponding support as well as the adaptive weight. Furthermore, the improved evidence combination rule was derived with the uncertain proposition in the framework of discernment. Finally, the numerical example proved both efficiency and reliability of the proposed method in terms of the navigation condition of certain channel. The results indicate that the proposed method can deal with the conflict and uncertainty of evidence and can make the stable decision.