考虑缺货策略的闭环供应链牛鞭效应系统动力学分析

为考察回收物流对供应链牛鞭效应的影响程度，建立了由需求方、制造商和原材料供应商、回收商组成的闭环供应链系统动力学模型。模型建立在供应能力受限并禁止退货的约束条件上，使系统成为分段线性复杂系统。分别在允许延期交货和不允许延期交货条件下进行实验，仿真实验结果表明，在不允许延期交货策略下，回收物流会放大牛鞭效应；而在允许延期交货策略下，若回收比例合理，则可以弱化牛鞭效应。

Bullwhip Effect in Closed Supply Chain Considering Backlog Policy By System Dynamics Method

To explore how the recycle logistics effect supply chain performance, the study constructed a closed supply chain system dynamics model, which is composed by demand, manufacture, supplier and recycler. The research considered the constraint condition for the ability of supply and forbidding return, which make the system more complicated and become nonlinear system. The experiments simulated the dynamic changes under different shortage polices of whether permitting delay delivery or not. The result shows that the return logistics would amplify the bullwhip effect under the condition of not permitting delay delivery. While under the condition of permitting delay delivery, the recycle logistics can partly dampen the bullwhip effect in some certain conditions.