认知不确定性条件下轨道交通信号系统关键设备维修方案决策

基于Vague集的模糊决策在处理不确定及不精确信息时考虑了方案满足目标的不可能性因而优于传统的Fuzzy集。本文针对轨道交通信号系统中的无线闭塞中心系统设备的复杂性与故障相关信息的不确定性和模糊性问题,提出了一种认知不确定性条件下基于Vague集的设备维修策略决策方法。该方法以立即停车维修、优先安排维修、视情维修、定期维修和延迟维修等5种典型维修方案作为无线闭塞中心关键设备维修的对策集;在兼顾安全性和经济性的基础上,给出了安全性、可靠性、维修性、经济性以及可监测性等5个定性的决策评价语言变量集及相应的Vague数转换方法;构造了维修策略的Vague决策局势效果向量,并以接近正负理想Vague局势效果向量的相对贴近度为决策依据进行最优维修策略的决策。决策实例说明了该方法的具体实现过程,并验证了其有效性。

Maintenance strategy for key equipment of Rail Transit Signal System based on epistemic uncertainty

Fuzzy decision making based on Vague sets is superior to fuzzy set theory in dealing with uncertain and imprecise judgments of decision makers due to its ability of supporting opposing evidence. In this paper, for the complexity and uncertainty of the information trouble of radio block center equipment and system, a decision making method for equipment maintenance strategy based on vague set is proposed. The countermeasure set of radio block center includes the five typical maintenance schemes, such as the off-line maintenance, priority plan overhaul, condition-based maintenance, periodic overhaul and postponed overhaul. Taking the safety and economy into account, the five qualitative evaluation indexes of decision making, such as security, reliability, maintainability, economy and monitoring feasibility, are proposed, and the linguistic variables are transformed into vague numbers by vague set theory. Through constructing situation effect vectors of maintenance strategy, the optimal maintenance strategy for radio block center can be obtained by technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPIS) framework. The example of the scheme for radio block center in service is provided to illustrate the specific process of the decision making method and to verify its effectiveness.