基于故障规律的导弹备件消耗预测

针对导弹备件消耗存在波动性而难以准确预测的问题,在分析导弹备件消耗与导弹装备故障关系的基础上,提出了根据导弹装备故障规律来预测导弹备件消耗的思路。首先建立了导弹装备故障次数灰色预测模型;然后重点从导弹故障件流程分析、故障件相关参数的确定和消耗量计算公式的推导着手,建立了导弹备件消耗预测模型。算例结果表明,基于故障规律的导弹备件消耗预测方法具有较高的精度。该方法从备件产生的根源角度分析备件的消耗,具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

Consumption Forecasting of Missile Spare Parts Based on Fault Rule

Aiming at the problem that missile spare parts consumption is difficult to forecast precisely due to its waving,on the basis of analyzing the relation between missile spare parts consumption and missile equipment fault,the thought of forecasting missile spare parts consumption according to fault rule of missile equipment is brought forward.Firstly,grey forecast model of missile equipment fault times is built up;then consumption forecasting model of missile spare parts is established by analyzing the flow of fault spare parts,calculating correlative parameter of fault spare parts and deducing consumption computing formula.The example results show the consumption forecasting method of missile spare parts based on fault rule have better forecast precision.The method analyzes spare parts consumption from the angle of spare parts happening,and has important theory significance and applied value.