Retrospective Versus Prospective Statements and Outcome of Presidential Elections

This study investigates retrospective and prospective voting from a communication perspective, looking to see whether there is relationship between election outcome and the relative emphasis U.S. presidential candidates place on retrospective (past) versus prospective (future) utterances in campaign messages. The sample includes a variety of presidential campaign messages (acceptance addresses, primary and general television spots, debates, direct mail advertising) from several campaigns (1948–2004) by numerous candidates. In the primary phase of the campaign, there is no difference between winners and losers in relative emphasis on retrospective and prospective statements. However, in the general phase of the presidential campaign, winners use a significantly larger proportion of retrospective (and a smaller proportion of prospective) utterances than losers. Furthermore, the relationship between emphasis on retrospective utterances and election outcome was larger for incumbents than challengers (but significant for both types of candidates). These findings support retrospective voting in the general, but not the primary, campaign.