安徽省能源消费碳消费排放影响因素分解分析

为探寻安徽省碳排放总量变动的影响因素以实现节能减排的目标,基于安徽省1995～2009年能源碳排放量,利用Kaya恒等式和Laspeyres指数分解方法,分析了碳排放强度、能源强度、人均GDP和常住人口规模对碳排放变动的贡献。结果表明,人均产出效应是促进碳排放增加的主要拉动因素,累积贡献率为149.03%;能源强度效应是唯一抑制碳排放增加的因素,累积贡献率为-100.12%;其他两因素对碳排放增加的促进作用不明显,并从改善能源结构、提高能源效率、重点关注高耗能高排放行业三方面提出了政策建议。

Decomposition Analysis of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions Caused by Energy Consumption in Anhui Province

In order to save energy and reduce emission,it is important to study the factors that influence the total amount of carbon emission.This article firstly evaluates the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Anhui Province for the period 1995~2009.And then it analyzes empirically the carbon emission intensity,energy intensity,per capita GDP and the resident population on the contribution of changes in carbon emissions with Kaya identity and Laspeyres index decomposition methods.The results show that the effect of per capita output is the most important driving factor that increases the carbon emission with the cumulative contribution rate of 149.03%;the effect of energy intensity is the only factor that inhibits the increase of carbon emissions with the cumulative contribution rate of-100.12%;the remaining two factors have no obvious effects on the increased carbon emissions.Finally,it puts forward three policy recommendations to reduce carbon emissions,that is,to improve energy structure,promote energy efficiency and to pay close attention to high-energy consumption and high-emission industries.