| 中国碱生产量及其能源需求和CO2排放的情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈兰,王洁,韦保仁. 中国碱生产量及其能源需求和CO2排放的情景分析[J]. 江苏化工, 2008, 36(6): 42-45 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈兰 王洁 韦保仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 苏州科技大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏,苏州,215011 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用NICE模型,通过情景分析对中国的碱生产量及能源需求和CO2排放量进行预测。选取玻璃、纸、肥皂、布作为碱需求量的主要相关因子,通过SPSS15.0拟合得到:未来烧碱的需求量与玻璃和纸的需求量有较强的线性关系;纯碱的需求量与玻璃和肥皂的需求量有较强的线性关系。预测结果表明,到2010年以后中国的碱生产量将逐渐减少,能源需求和CO排放量也将逐渐减少。
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| 关 键 词： | 碱生产量 能源需求 情景分析 |
Scene Analysis of Alkali Capacity Demand for Energy and Carbon Dioxide Let in China |
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| SHEN Lan,WANG Jie,WEI Bao-ren. Scene Analysis of Alkali Capacity Demand for Energy and Carbon Dioxide Let in China[J]. Jiangsu Chemical Industry, 2008, 36(6): 42-45 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Lan WANG Jie WEI Bao-ren |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses NICE model to forecast alkali capacity demand for energy and CO2 let in China through scene analysis. The major downstream industries of alkali production industry are building materials(mainly glass)and paper,pharmaceutical,chemical industry,and a large part of these are glass,paper and chemical industry. Therefore,we choose glass,paper,soap,cloth as the base demand of the main relevant factors,using SPSS 15.0 for simulation and the result shows that,the future demand for caustic soda is strong linear related with glass and paper,so does the demand for soda ash with glass and soap. The results also show that alkali capacity of China will decline,the demand for energy and CO2 let will be also reduced in 2010. |
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| Keywords: | CO2 |
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