节能住宅全寿命周期费用影响因素仿真研究

从对节能住宅进行全寿命周期费用分析的重要性出发，通过对影响节能住宅全寿命周期费用的因素入手，建立了基于系统动力学的全寿命周期费用影响因素系统模型，并以兰州鸿润园节能住宅作为实证研究对象，运用系统动力学 Vensim-PLE 仿真软件进行分析，结果显示:节能率的大小、是否考虑资金时间价值和寿命期的长短均对全寿命周期费用具有显著影响，节能程度越高的住宅，在考虑资金时间价值的情况下，使用寿命越长，它的全寿命周期费用也就越低。分析结果对消除人们在节能投入认识上的“误区”、政府建设行政主管部门组织编制建筑节能方面设计规范与标准、开发商和业主建设与购买节能住宅均提供了可靠的经济性参考依据。

Factors on Life Cycle Cost for Energy Efficiency Residential Buildings

Starting with the importance of energy-saving residential Building’s life-cycle cost analysis，the paper establishes an factors system dynamics model by analyzing factors of the energy-saving residential building’s life-cycle cost. The system dynamics simulation software, Vensim-PLE，is used to analyze a case，lanzhou hong run park residential building. The simulation results showed that the size of the saving rate，the time value of money and the length of lifetime have significant impact on the life cycle cost. In consideration of the time value of money，the higher saving rate of energy-saving and the longer lifetime it is，the lower life-cycle cost it will be. The results provides economic references to eliminate the “misunderstanding” on energy-saving residential building’s construction，for relevant construction administrative to government departments when they organize preparation of the energy-saving design specifications and standards，for developers or owners to build or purchase the energy-saving residential building.