Modeling phosphorus in the upper Etowah River basin: identifying sources under uncertainty.

The Uniform Covering by Probabilistic Rejection (UCPR) algorithm was used, in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, to identify P loads from point source and nonpoint source polluters in the upper Etowah River basin (UERB) in Georgia. The key findings of the research are as follows. The mean absolute error was preferred over the root mean square error as a search criterion for the UCPR algorithm when water quality observations are scarce. The undocumented P load from point sources in the UERB was consistently estimated as about 43 kg/d by the proposed method; but the method was not able to identify the broiler litter application rate to the poultry/beef operation pastures. Point sources (both documented and undocumented), poultry/beef operation pastures, and forests are the three major contributors of P. During 1992-1996, on average they accounted for 36.4, 31.7, and 17.2% of P load from the UERB, respectively.