基于电力不足概率的市场力评估

提出了基于电力不足概率的市场力评估方法.研究表明,电力不足概率不但反映了电力供需形势,而且还用概率值量化了电力市场中市场力的大小.当系统负荷水平增加或可用发电容量减少时,电力不足概率值将增加,电力不足概率值越大,发电厂商就越有可能实施市场力.发电商可利用该市场力评估方法在竟价上网中进行策略投标,市场监管机构也可应用系统电力不足概率值来检测市场滥用市场力的可能性,以便完善市场规则,提高市场效率.

A NEW APPROACH TO ASSESS MARKET POWER BASED ON LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITY

An approach to assess the market power in electricity market based on the loss of load probability is proposed. It is indicated by the results of study that not only the situation of power supply and demand in electricity market can be reflected by the loss of load probability, but also the level of market power in electricity market can be quantified by the value of the probability. When the load increases or the available power generation capacity decreases, the value of the loss of load probability will increase. The higher the value of the probability is, the more possible will be for the power generation companies to implement the market power, and in the bidding based energy transaction the strategic bidding can be carried out by the power generation companies using this market power assessment approach. At the same time this approach can also be used by the regulatory commission in electricity market to detect the possibility to abuse the market power in order to consummate the market rule and improve the efficiency of electricity market.