Economic performance of lactating dairy cows submitted for first service timed artificial insemination after a voluntary waiting period of 60 or 88 days

The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic performance of dairy cows managed with a voluntary waiting period (VWP) of 60 or 88 d. A secondary objective was estimating variation in cash flow under different input pricing scenarios through stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. Lactating Holstein cows from 3 commercial farms were blocked by parity group and total milk yield in their previous lactation and then randomly assigned to a VWP of 60 (VWP60; n = 1,352) or 88 d (VWP88; n = 1,359). All cows received timed-artificial insemination (TAI) for first service after synchronization of ovulation with the Double-Ovsynch protocol. For second and greater services, cows received artificial insemination (AI) after detection of estrus or the Ovsynch protocol initiated 32 ± 3 d after AI. Two analyses were performed: (1) cash flow per cow for the calving interval of the experimental lactation and (2) cash flow per slot occupied by each cow enrolled in the experiment for an 18-mo period after calving in the experimental lactation. Extending the VWP from 60 to 88 d delayed time to pregnancy during lactation (～20 d) and increased the risk of leaving the herd for multiparous cows (hazard ratio = 1.21). As a result, a smaller proportion of multiparous cows calved again and had a subsequent lactation (?6%). The shift in time to pregnancy combined with the herd exit dynamics resulted in longer lactation length for primiparous (22 d) but not multiparous cows. Longer lactations led to greater milk income over feed cost and a tendency for greater cash flow during the experimental lactation for primiparous but not multiparous cows in the VWP88 group. On the other hand, profitability per slot for the 18-mo period was numerically greater ($68 slot/18 mo) for primiparous cows but numerically reduced (?$85 slot/18 mo) for multiparous cows in the VWP88 treatment. For primiparous cows most of the difference in cash flow was explained by replacement cost, whereas for multiparous cows it was mostly explained by differences in replacement cost and income over feed cost. Under variable input pricing conditions generated through stochastic simulations, the longer VWP treatment always increased cash flow per 18 mo for primiparous and reduced cash flow for multiparous cows. In conclusion, extending the duration of the VWP from 60 to 88 d numerically increased profitability of primiparous cows and reduced profitability of multiparous cows. Such an effect depended mostly on the herd replacement dynamics and milk production efficiency.