浙江省级天然气管道第三方破坏失效概率计算方法探讨

第三方破坏不仅取决于管道自身条件,而且还受外部环境、运行管理条件的直接影响,所引起的管道失效概率具有很强的随机性。本文对欧洲输气管道失效数据库提供的相关失效数据进行线性回归分析,结合浙江省级天然气管道运行情况,基于风险评估第三方破坏评分体系与权重确定方法,综合考虑管道环境和运行管理条件,提出了管道第三方破坏失效概率预测模型。运用VB语言编制了计算程序,对8条管线进行计算,计算结果表明:对浙江省级天然气管道失效概率影响最大的因素是管径、壁厚和埋深。所建立的预测模型可作为评判输气管道第三方破坏的量化指标,为浙江省级天然气管道的运行、维护和检测提供参考依据。

Study on the Model of Failure Probability by Third Party Damage for Zhejiang Gas Pipelines

Third party damage does not only depend on the own conditions of gas pipes,but also is directly affected by the external environment,the operation and management conditions,which causes the random failure probability of gas pipelines.According to the related failure data provided by the Europe Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group,pipeline failure probability model of third party damage is established by linear regression analysis and scoring system and weight determination method of risk assessment.The model is modified after synthetically considering the historical failures of pipelines and environmental and operational condition of Zhejiang region gas pipelines.Failure probability of 8pipelines is calculated by Visual Basic programming.The calculation results show that the pipe diameter,wall thickness and buried depth are the most effective factors to the failure probability of gas pipelines.The model can be used as quantitative index of third party damage,the quantification of the failure probability can provide the basis for the operation,maintenance and detection of gas pipelines.