浙北引水工程方案选优指标体系及其综合评价

浙北引水工程是解决浙北地区缺水问题的有效措施之一。为了对浙北引水工程的3个拟定方案——新安江方案、富春江方案和太湖-富春江方案进行选优评价,本文建立了基于资源-社会-经济-环境-工程技术模型的浙北引水工程方案选优综合评价指标体系,并采用降半梯形法确定末级指标隶属度,将层次分析法与变异系数法确定的末级指标权重进行加权求和以确定综合权重,最后采用模糊综合评价法对各方案进行综合评价,评价结果认为太湖-富春江方案的近期实施可行性较大,新安江方案近期实施难度较大,但亦有可能作为浙江省水资源远景规划的备用水源方案。

Comprehensive evaluation on project of water diversion to northern Zhejiang province

Project of water diversion to northern Zhejiang province is one of the efficient measurements to release the northern Zhejiang province from the water scarcity. To evaluate and compare the practical possibilities of three schemes of this water diversion project,Xinanjiang case,Fuchunjiang case and Taihu-Fuchunjiang case,a comprehensive evaluation index system based on resource-society-economy-environment-technique model is established.The method of analytical hierarchy process(AHP) and the method of variation coefficient are combined to determine the weighted value of the third-grade indexes.The result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on this project shows that at present the Taihu-Fuchunjiang case is the most possible one and the Xinanjiang case is a difficult one.However,Xinanjiang case also can be a spare case for the far-reaching water resource plan of Zhejiang province.