| 我国风电设备市场扩散模型与预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马红艳,张磊,蒋景肖. 我国风电设备市场扩散模型与预测研究[J]. 可再生能源, 2011, 29(4): 14-19 |
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| 作者姓名： | 马红艳 张磊 蒋景肖 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州,221116 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71003097,70871029); 教育部人文社会科学基金(09YJC630218); 江苏省软科学研究计划(BR2010006); 中国矿业大学社科基金(2009W01) |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来,我国风电产业发展迅速,也面临着发展过快、产能过剩和政策调控等问题。文章针对我国风电设备市场扩散模型选择及产业发展趋势进行了研究。以Gompertz模型预测我国风电产业的发展趋势:2010年是风电产业发展的起飞点,此后的17年是产业发展的成长期,2027年后进入产业成熟期,按照这种发展速度,当前存在着风电设备产能过剩现象。政府应在角色定位、政策实施和产业链构建等方面予以调整。
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| 关 键 词： | 创新扩散 风电 预测 Gompertz模型 |
Research on the market diffusion model of wind power equipment and prediction in China |
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| MA Hong-yan,ZHANG Lei,JIANG Jing-xiao. Research on the market diffusion model of wind power equipment and prediction in China[J]. Renewable Energy(China), 2011, 29(4): 14-19 |
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| Authors: | MA Hong-yan ZHANG Lei JIANG Jing-xiao |
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| Affiliation: | MA Hong-yan,ZHANG Lei,JIANG Jing-xiao(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China) |
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| Abstract: | In recent years,the wind power industry has been developed rapidly in China,but it was also faced many problems,such as developing too fast,production capacity surplus,policy adjustments and so on.The wind power equipment diffusion model and the development trend of the wind industry in China were studied in this paper.The Gompertz model was used to predict the development trend of wind power industry,and it was found that 2010 is the development take-off year of the wind power industry,the following 17 yea... |
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| Keywords: | innovation diffusion wind power prediction Gompertz Model |
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