基于贝叶斯网络的航班串运行脆弱性研究

为研究航班串中某一关键航班发生进离港延误对该航班串中其它航班进离港准点率造成的影响,采用贝叶斯网络对航班串运行进行建模,识别并评价关键航班的脆弱性,并提出降低航班串运行脆弱性的建议。在受到管制、天气、军事活动、航班在机场异常过站以及其它异常情况等不确定因素影响下,研究航班串进离港准点率关系,并找出航班串运行时的脆弱节点以及评价关键航班的延误状态。通过对比分析增加关键航班过站时间航班串运行前后的进离港准点率,结果表明,增加关键航班过站时间可以降低航空公司航班串运行脆弱性。

Vulnerability Research of Flight String Operation Based on Bayesian Network

In order to study the impact of arrival and departure delays of a key flight on the arrival and departure punctuality of other flights in the flight string,Bayesian network was used to model the flight string operation,identify and evaluate the vulnerability of key flights,and some suggestions were put forward to reduce the vulnerability of flight string operation.Influenced by uncertainties such as control,weather,military activities,abnormal flight turn around at airports and other abnormal conditions,the punctual relationship of flight string entry and departure was studied,and the vulnerable nodes of flight string operation were identified and the delay status of key flights was evaluated.By comparing and analyzing the arrival and departure punctuality before and after increasing the critical flight turn around time,the results show that increasing the critical flight turn around time can reduce the vulnerability of airline flight operation.