一种估计网络可靠性的蒙特卡洛方法

将K—终端剩余连通可靠度的概念推广到链路存在失效状态的网络模型上，并提出了计算该可靠度的基于RVR的蒙特卡洛方法。首先对网络链路的状态进行抽样。在网络所有链路状态确定的前提下计算网络的K—终端剩余连通可靠度，即等价于计算相同拓扑结构，链路完全可靠网络的K—终端剩余连通可靠度，对于后者可采用H.Cancela等提出的基于RVR的蒙特卡洛算法。实践证明该估计方法是无偏的，且与原始的蒙特卡洛方法相比具有较小的方差。

A Monte Carlo Method to Estimate Network Reliability

The concept of K-terminal residual connectedness reliability is extended to the network with link failures and a Monte Carlo method based on RVR is proposed to estimate it. Firstly it draws trails from the link state vectors space. To calculate the reliability on the condition that the state of all the links is known is equal to calculate the K-terminal residual connectedness reliability of the network having the same topologic structure without link failures. The latter can be solved by means of RVR Monte Carlo method proposed by H. Cancela et al. It has been proved that the estimator in this paper is unbiased and has smaller variance compared with crude Monte Carlo method.