马尔可夫链在企业经济预测上的应用

为了科学的预测企业所关心的各项经济指标 ,以便为企业的未来做出正确的决策方案 ,需用适当的数学模型和方法对企业的经济活动进行定量的研究 .基于经济活动的复杂、多变性及带有许多随机性因素的特点 ,针对这两种常见的经济问题 ,分别建立了相应的马尔可夫链模型 .应用马尔可夫链的相关理论、巧妙的构造转移概率矩阵 ,只通过简单的矩阵运算 ,便迅速解决问题 .实例表明 ,马尔可夫链模型及方法在企业经济活动分析中是可行和适用的 ,可广泛用于解决企业中常见的预测及决策问题 .

Forecasting the Enterprise Economy by Using Marqov Chain Model

To scientifically forecast every economic index that enterprises are concerned about and to draw up the proper policy-making plan for the future development of enterprises, it is necessary to make quantitive research into the economic activities of enterprises by using proper mathematics model and method. In view of the complicated, changeable and random economic activities, the Marqov chain model is established to solve two common economic problems respectively. The transition probability matrix is set up by using the theory of Marqov chain. The problem can be easily solved by simple matrix. The example showed that Marqov chain model and method is feasible and practical, which can be used in common forecasting and policy-making of enterprises.